With the end of support for Windows 10, millions of computers in Europe permanently lose their security updates, even though they continue to function perfectly from a technical standpoint. This software-induced obsolescence encourages the premature replacement of functional hardware and thus runs counter to the goals of resource conservation and the circular economy.
Commissioned by refurbed, Fraunhofer Austria has produced a whitepaper that quantifies, in a methodologically transparent way, how many devices in the EU27 are affected by the end of Windows 10 support and what environmental impacts this entails. The whitepaper also derives concrete recommendations for private users, companies, policymakers and manufacturers.
- Around 74 million Windows 10 devices in the EU27 (as at 1 January 2026)
- Around 41 million devices are expected not to switch to Windows 11 – roughly 55% of the installed base
- One additional year of use avoids around 0.32 million t CO₂ and approx. 1,172 t of electronic waste
- This equals the annual CO₂ sequestration of more than 500 km² of forest – roughly the area of Lake Constance
In Germany alone, this concerns around 5.8 million devices and in Austria around 0.7 million devices that will continue to run Windows 10 beyond the ESU transition period.
Why not all devices switch to Windows 11
Switching to Windows 11 requires certain hardware prerequisites such as TPM 2.0, Secure Boot and a supported processor generation. In the commercial sector, only around 2.8% of Windows 10 devices cannot technically be upgraded – here, procurement cycles, test phases and scarce IT resources are the main reasons for delayed migration. In the private sector, the share of technically incompatible devices is considerably higher; added to this are deliberate rejection, for example due to data protection concerns or the stronger AI integration, and a lack of urgency due to the free ESU extension until October 2027.
Approach
The affected installed base was derived using a multi-stage funnel model: from the total installed base of Windows devices in the EU27, via the Windows 10 market share, the split into private and commercial use and the technical upgrade capability, through to a realistic migration rate. Each step is based on publicly available sources, cross-checked against a second independent source where possible. The environmental impacts were calculated using a simplified life-cycle model.
Recommendations
- Time-limited interim solutions for devices that cannot technically be upgraded, e.g. a secured Windows 10 boot medium
- Targeted migration campaigns and clear internal deadlines in the commercial sector
- Refurbished rather than new devices as the default option when replacement is necessary – for private users and in procurement guidelines
- Extended security support beyond 2027 for devices without TPM 2.0/Secure Boot by policymakers and manufacturers
Suggested citation
P. Rudorf and S. Thöny, “Whitepaper - Prematurely retired - The impact of the end of Windows 10 support on the device stock in the EU27”, Fraunhofer Austria Research GmbH, 2026.